Fire danger ratings are being simplified from 1 September 2022
- The Beagle
- Aug 24, 2022
- 3 min read
The Australian Fire Danger Rating System has been developed using the latest science to be more accurate and relevant to where you live. It’s part of a national change which simplifies the system to four levels – Moderate, High, Extreme and Catastrophic.
Each level has clear calls to action, to make it easier for people to know what to do, and when there is minimal risk, Fire Danger Rating signs will be set to ‘NO RATING’.
What are Fire Danger Ratings? Fire danger ratings describe the potential level of danger should a bushfire start. They are important because they provide people with information so that they can take action to protect themselves and others from the potentially dangerous impacts of bushfires. They do not indicate the chance of a fire occurring, although this is a common misconception. Ratings are calculated using a combination of weather forecasting and information about vegetation that could fuel a fire.
Why change to the new AFDRS?
The McArthur-based fire danger ratings were based on science that is more than 60 years old, are not updatable and only designed for a limited number of vegetation types representing a third of the Australian continent.
As science has improved, so has our ability to predict fire behaviour and the threat more accurately. The AFDRS uses the latest science, knowledge and data, as well as fire behaviour models for a wide range of vegetation types to build a better system to deliver more accurate information to Australians.
Since the 1960s Australia has been using the McArthur meter developed by McArthur and CSIRO. However, this is based on two fire behaviour models for all of Australia. These include forest and grass. The fire danger is communicated through Fire Danger Ratings (six to seven) and by using two indices: Forest Fire Index (FFDI) and Grass Fire Index (GFDI).
The issues with this system include:
Australia has diverse ecosystems, and these are not well represented by the McArthur-based system that is based on two fire behaviour models.
The McArthur-based system does not properly account for current fuel state. Especially in forests.
The McArthur-based system does not make use of the last 60 years of fire behaviour science.
The McArthur-based system has high sensitivity to changes in input values and is known to perform poorly particularly at the higher end of the ratings scale where most impact occurs.
Why is the AFDRS better? Extensive social research (including the third largest market survey ever conducted in Australia) was undertaken and uncovered weaknesses with the McArthur-based fire danger rating system. Following this, focus groups worked on developing designs, which were then tested again with the community. Based on the strength of the social research, there is a high degree of confidence that the AFDRS will be easier to comprehend and encourage greater community engagement and comprehension, and therefore improve community safety. In terms of the underlying build, a prototype of the AFDRS was developed by NSW Rural Fire Service and demonstrated improved fire danger forecasts over the McArthur-based system, when compared to real-world fires. The AFDRS uses finer-grained data, updated science and the latest fire behaviour prediction models over eight vegetation types (compared to the current two vegetation types). The AFDRS is being built to be continuously updatable as information and science improves.
When is the AFDRS coming? The new AFDRS is rolled out on 1 September 2022. A comprehensive implementation project supported the change to the new AFDRS. Significant work was undertaken by all jurisdictions across many sectors, including fire and land management, education, health, transport, agriculture and forestry, utilities (e.g. electricity, gas and water) and local government to prepare for the implementation of the AFDRS including changes to legislation, policy, procedures, information systems, web pages, signage and the training of staff, contractors and volunteers as well as public education and awareness.
Who funded the AFDRS? The AFDRS Program was funded by the Australian Government and each state and territory government, working together to improve fire danger ratings and community safety as a national priority.
Who developed the AFDRS? The AFDRS is overseen by a National Program Board coordinated by a Program Management Office working out of AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services, in Melbourne. The NSW Rural Fire Service developed the technical build with the Bureau of Meteorology and a contractor. Implementing agencies within state, territory and commonwealth jurisdictions were heavily involved, through working groups and committees, in the development of the system. These organisations, via an Implementation Coordination Group reporting to the Project Board, were responsible for implementing the AFDRS and preparing their jurisdictions for the complex change to the new system. The AFDRS Program had three significant and related projects overseen by the AFDRS Program Board and coordinated out of the AFAC office in Melbourne:
Learn more about the system at: www.afac.com.au/initiative/afdrs
